你願意住在紅州還是藍州?

你願意住在紅州還是藍州?

文:史蒂夫·摩爾 (Stephen Moore)

We’re supposed to be the United States of America. But in many ways, we’re now divided into two very different nations.

我們應該是美利堅合眾國。但在許多方面,我們如今分裂成了兩個十分不同的國家。

There is red state America.

一個是紅州美國。

And there is blue state America.

一個是藍州美國。

The red states favor conservative, small government, free market policies: low taxes, light regulation, tough-on-crime policing, and worker freedom. Think Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and Utah.

紅州傾向保守主義、小政府、自由市場政策:低稅收、寬鬆管制、嚴打犯罪的治安與工人自由。想想佛羅里達、德州、田納西、亞利桑那和猶他州。

The blue states favor a liberal/left, big government approach: high taxes, heavy regulations, high minimum wages, and mandatory union membership. Think New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Illinois, Oregon, and, of course, California.

藍州傾向李伯儒/左派、大政府主義:高稅收、嚴格管制、高最低工資與強制性工會會員制。想想紐約、新澤西、康涅狄格、馬薩諸塞、伊利諾伊、俄勒岡,當然還有加州。

Progressives like to argue that their big-government, high tax policies are economically superior and thus better for the poor, minorities and working-class Americans than those of red states. Conservative policies, progressives contend, are culturally backward, and tilted to benefit the rich.

進步主義者喜歡辯稱他們的大政府高稅收政策具有經濟優勢,因此對窮人、少數族裔及工人階級要比起紅州更友好。進步主義者斷言,保守主義政策是落後文化,向富人的利益傾斜。

Let’s test this thesis by comparing three of the largest red states: Florida, Texas, and Tennessee with three of the largest blue states: California, New York, and Illinois.

讓我們檢查這條論斷,比較三個大紅州(佛羅里達、德州與田納西)與三個大藍州(加州、紐約與伊利諾伊)。

If progressive policies really work, then Americans should be rushing to get into the blue states.

假如進步主義政策的確可行,那麼美國人應該一窩蜂湧入藍州。

But just the opposite is happening.

但發生的情況正相反。

Americans are packing up their U-Hauls and heading to the red states. According to the New York Times, in August 2020, so many people wanted to leave New York City that moving companies were turning away business. They just couldn’t handle the demand.

美國人舉家搬遷至紅州。根據《紐約時報》,在 2020 年八月,想離開紐約的人多到搬家公司回絕生意。他們實在應付不來需求。

This exodus may be accelerating, but it’s not new.

這股搬家潮也許在加速,但並非新鮮事。

Over the last decade the three big blue states each lost an average of one million people to other states, while the three big red states gained almost a million from other states.

過去十年,這三個大藍州平均分別流失了一百萬人到其他州,那三個大紅州接收了從其他州流入的幾乎一百萬人口。

Makes perfect sense. Americans like freedom. Small government means more freedom.

完全合理。美國人熱愛自由。小政府意味著更多的自由。

And freedom means opportunity.

而自由意味著機遇。

Let’s say you’re looking for a job. Over the last decade, Florida, Texas and Tennessee have gained twice as many jobs as the progressive states.

假設你在找工作。過去十年,佛羅里達、德州和田納西的新增職位比進步主義州多兩倍。

Not only that, but your money goes further in red states. According to a 2019 Tax Foundation study, your $100 stretches to $111 in purchasing power in Tennessee, while in New Jersey it shrinks to $89.

不僅如此,你的錢也更多流入紅州。據稅務基金會 2019 年研究報告,在田納西,你的 100 美元購買力可達 111 美元,而在新澤西則縮水到 89 美元。

If you’re a big corporation or a small company looking for a business-friendly environment, affordable housing or maybe just a better quality of life, where are you going to go?

如果你是一家大企業或小企業,在尋找親商業環境、可負擔的住房,或者只是更高的生活質量,你會去哪裡?

The tough decision is not choosing a red state or a blue state. The tough decision is which red state to move to.

艱難的決定不在於選擇紅州還是藍州,而是該選擇搬去哪個紅州。

Progressives like to say that this isn’t about economics, it’s about weather. The red states tend to be in the South and southwest where the weather is warmer.

進步主義者喜歡說這無關經濟,而有關氣候。紅州通常都在南方,而西南地區天氣更暖和。

But that doesn’t explain why so many people are leaving California which has the best weather in the country.

但這解釋不了為什麼那麼多人離開加州這個全國天氣最好的州。

So, what does explain the migration from blue states?

那麼,什麼能解釋從藍州的遷徙?

Start with taxes. The two most populous blue states — California and New York — have the highest tax rates in America, while the two most populous red states — Texas and Florida — have no income tax at all.

從稅收開始。兩個人口最多的藍州——加州和紐約——稅率為全國最高,而兩個人口最多的紅州——德州和佛羅里達——則根本沒有所得稅。

When taxes get too high, people move to where taxes are lower. The problem for the high-tax states is that these people take their money, their ambition, and their employees with them.

當稅收過高,人們搬去稅收較低的地方。高稅州的問題是這些人帶著他們的錢、野心和雇員一起離開。

Then, there is crime.

接著,是犯罪。

 

Do blue cities do better than red cities?

藍市比紅市要好嗎?

The answer, of course, is no. Of the twenty cities with the highest murder rates, 18 are run by left-leaning Democrats — and for the most part, have been for decades. And these cities aren’t getting safer; they’re getting more dangerous.

答案當然是否定的。二十個謀殺率最高的市里,18 個由左傾民主黨人管理——而且大多數幾乎是管理了數十年。這些市並沒有變得更安全;它們變得更危險。

A good chunk of Minneapolis was burned to the ground as a result of riots, following the death of George Floyd.

明尼阿波利斯大部分地方因騷亂被燒為平地,從喬治·佛洛依德死後持續至今。

Portland had over 90 consecutive nights of rioting — not peaceful protests, rioting.

波特蘭連續 90 晚發生暴亂——不是和平抗議,是暴亂。

Seattle allowed an entire section of the city to declare itself an autonomous zone — a first in American history!

西雅圖允許市裡的一大片區域自稱自治區——美國史上第一次!

Progressive governors, progressive mayors, progressive police chiefs run all these cities and states.

進步主義州長、進步主義市長、進步主義警察局長管理著這些所有市與州。

Ask any resident of Los Angeles or San Francisco about the rise in homelessness and you’ll get a litany of horror stories. Both cities, of course, have a long history of progressive mayors.

隨便問問洛杉磯或者三藩市的居民關於無家可歸的上升問題,你會聽到一連串可怕的故事。這兩個城市當然都長期由進步主義市長管理。

How about keeping us healthy and safe?  Surely the progressive states, with their strict lockdowns, did a better job saving lives from the coronavirus.

那麼在維持我們的健康與安全方面呢?進步主義州的嚴格封城政策肯定從新冠手裡拯救了更多生命吧。

Nope.

不。

Adjusted for population, as a resident of New York, New Jersey or Illinois, you were three, four or even five times more likely to die of the virus than if you lived in a red state like Florida, Texas, Georgia, Utah or Arizona.

經過人口調整,作為紐約、新澤西或伊利諾伊的居民,你死於新冠病毒的機率要三倍、四倍,甚至五倍於生活在佛羅里達、德州、喬治亞、猶他或亞利桑那等紅州。

Progressives and liberal Democrats may mean well.  They certainly talk a lot about how much they care about the poor, minorities and the working class.

進步主義與自由派民主黨人也許出於好心。他們肯定總是說自己多麼關懷窮人、少數族裔與工人階級。

Yet somehow, it’s always the poor, minorities, and the working class who pay the price for their bad policies. That’s why those who can move, move. Those who can’t get stuck with the short end of the stick.

然而不知何故,總是窮人、少數族裔與工人階級為他們糟糕的政策付出代價。這就是為什麼能搬走的人搬走了。而由不能搬走的人承受惡果。

Red state America is prospering. Blue state America is in meltdown.

紅州美國繁華發展。藍州美國處於崩潰。

So, where do you want to live?

所以,你想住在哪裡?

I’m Stephen Moore, economist at FreedomWorks, for Prager University.

我是史蒂夫·摩爾,FreedomWorks 的經濟學家,

    

傳播真相   探究歷史 支持正義  分享快樂

💰 打賞